At the end of the day—whoever the winner may be, the end of any war is ultimately a wave of displacement. Albert Camus, the philosopher who lived through World War II, once said that those who suffer from war must become the center of the universe. In other words, in dealing with war refugees, we must detach ourselves from questions such as: who they are, what religion they follow, what race, ideology, and so on.
The escalation of the Israel–Palestine conflict and the ongoing war between Iran and Israel will generate significant impacts, including humanitarian, economic, political, and geopolitical dimensions. Nearly the entire population of Gaza (2.3 million people) is likely to experience forced displacement. Satellite imagery shows refugee tents filling Rafah and other areas. The conflict may then spread to Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, potentially increasing the risk of a regional war in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, countries not directly involved in the war will face future waves of migrant exodus. This includes Indonesia, which has long been known to have strong emotional ties with Palestine.
If the conflict remains unresolved, pressure from Palestinian refugees may extend to Jordan and Lebanon, which already host around 5.7 million registered Palestinian refugees under UNRWA. Countries outside the conflict zone will face increasing asylum applications on humanitarian grounds from war-affected populations.
The main challenge for Indonesia in the future is its status as a non-signatory to the Refugee Convention, which could trigger international criticism if it refuses mass refugee inflows. This dilemma is also evident in Indonesia’s handling of Rohingya refugees. On the one hand, the government must maintain domestic stability; on the other hand, Indonesia is not a primary destination country for refugees.
Therefore, preventive efforts are needed by optimizing international cooperation to: (1) obtain UN funding support to expand temporary shelter capacity for migrants, and (2) encourage destination countries (the United States, Canada, Australia) to accelerate refugee resettlement from Indonesia.
As a non-signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, Indonesia has no legal obligation to finance refugees; therefore, UN funding support becomes crucial. Nevertheless, coordination with UNHCR and IOM has been regulated through Presidential Regulation No. 125/2016 concerning the Handling of Refugees from Abroad. Practical steps to access UN funding for expanding temporary shelter capacity can be carried out through needs identification and mapping, as well as designing comprehensive proposals.
These funding proposals can then be coordinated continuously with UN agencies in Indonesia, involving the UN Resident Coordinator Office to help coordinate with other UN bodies such as UNICEF, while also connecting Indonesia with international donors through the Joint SDG Fund or other mechanisms.
By leveraging its humanitarian experience and current diplomatic position, Indonesia can access UN funding to manage potential migrant exoduses from the Middle East while maintaining domestic stability and fulfilling international humanitarian commitments.
