Amidst global geopolitical uncertainty, the escalation of war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States (US) has sent “highly volatile shockwaves” through the global trade balance. If the conflict widens, Indonesia’s immigration policy can no longer function as a mere administrative tool. Cross-border human mobility management must now intertwine with trade stability, investment, and national supply chain resilience.
This condition is severely exacerbated by strict protocols enforced in the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial distribution chokepoint currently transited by one-fifth of the world’s petroleum supply and one-fourth of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. This has pushed energy import prices well past US$100 per barrel. For Indonesia, the impact hits the fiscal balance directly: soaring global oil prices threaten to inflate energy import bills while straining fiscal space through rising subsidy burdens.
The pressure does not stop at the energy sector. Global supply chain disruptions that typically trail geopolitical conflicts can trigger spikes in logistics costs and disrupt domestic industrial activities. In response, Indonesia is moving to fortify its economic resilience by reconfiguring global supply chains toward a more “resilient” and “de-risking” model through international trade agreements. This step aims to leverage alternative market opportunities to plug supply gaps left by the disruptions.
A key milestone in this strategy is the finalization of the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) with the United States in February 2026. This agreement expands horizons for Indonesian exports into the US market via tariff reductions on various flagship products. Concurrently, Indonesia is cementing trade ties with Iran under a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) framework, opening export-import access for several strategic commodities.
Naturally, the economic windfalls of these trade pacts will not peak if the cross-border mobility of business players, investors, and professionals is not managed adaptively. Human movement is often the primary gateway for forging business partnerships, transferring technology, and scaling up production networks.
Without a responsive immigration policy, strategic alliances designed to integrate resilient global supply chains will fall short of their potential. This directly affects the reinforcement of Indonesia’s standing as an Indo-Pacific economic hub.
It is at this juncture that reforming immigration policy emerges as a strategic pillar to bolster economic collaboration with Iran and the US, while simultaneously building national resilience. Future initiatives to strengthen immigration policy can be channeled into three fundamental areas:
First, facilitating talent and investor exchanges to support supply chain diversification. Global geopolitical tensions are prodding many countries, including Indonesia, to scale back reliance on Middle Eastern energy supplies. By deploying more flexible frameworks—such as fast-tracked talent visas, investor visas, or skilled worker visas—Indonesia can attract the investors and experts needed to develop alternative supply chains. This scheme also opens doors for talent exchanges, remittance boosts, knowledge transfers, and the creation of joint ventures with US and Iranian firms in non-energy sectors.
Second, securing the stable implementation of the Preferential Trade Agreement between Indonesia and Iran. This pact opens up trade channels for Indonesian commodities like processed food, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and rubber, alongside imports from Iran including oil, chemicals, and aluminum. Upgrading immigration policies via business mobility programs allows Iranian entrepreneurs to invest in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector free from excessive bureaucratic red tape. This is vital, as geopolitical friction prompts Iran to seek new economic partners outside Western orbits, while Indonesia requires investment to fortify its domestic industries.
A parallel approach applies to implementing the ART with the United States. The mobility of business operators, investors, and corporate executives will intensify to facilitate investment negotiations, industrial inspections, and technology transfers. Reforming immigration policy through expedited business visas, investor visas, talent visas, and initiatives like the Second Home Visa can accelerate investment realization and strengthen trade partnerships.
Third, leveraging immigration policy as a strategic tool to stabilize the national trade balance. Employing a neutral, pro-business posture enables Indonesia to draw alternative investments from non-conflict regions, such as Europe and East Asia, while expanding trade partner diversification.
Strengthening immigration policy also encompasses protecting Indonesian migrant workers. Well-managed repatriation and reintegration programs ensure that remittance inflows remain stable. This is a critical factor, given that remittances from migrant workers in the Middle East reach billions of dollars annually, fueling domestic consumption and backing national balance of payments stability.
The turmoil in the Middle East serves as a clear reminder that immigration policy is no longer just about border control. In an increasingly interconnected global economy, managing human mobility has become a core element of the strategy to preserve trade, investment, and national economic resilience amid a highly dynamic shifting global geopolitical landscape.***
The author is the Special Staff to the Minister of Immigration and Correctional Affairs for Communication and Media.
